Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Chelsea to win, giving Chelsea a
55.6% probability. Most likely scoreline: 1–2,
with a 59.5% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Burnley 22.4%Draw 22.1%Chelsea 55.6%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
1–2
Expected goals (xG)
1.15 – 1.93
Over 2.5 goals
59.5%
Under 2.5 goals
40.5%
Team rating (Elo)
1288 vs 1485
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burnley vs Chelsea?
Our AI model favours Chelsea to win — Burnley 22.4%, draw 22.1%, Chelsea 55.6%. Chelsea is the model's pick at 55.6%.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Chelsea?
The model's most likely scoreline is 1–2 (Burnley 1, Chelsea 2).
Will Burnley vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 59.5% chance of over 2.5 goals and 40.5% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.