Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Arsenal to win, giving Arsenal a
70.8% probability. Most likely scoreline: 1–2,
with a 62.0% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Burnley 11.9%Draw 17.3%Arsenal 70.8%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
1–2
Expected goals (xG)
0.85 – 2.35
Over 2.5 goals
62.0%
Under 2.5 goals
38.0%
Team rating (Elo)
1288 vs 1666
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Burnley vs Arsenal?
Our AI model favours Arsenal to win — Burnley 11.9%, draw 17.3%, Arsenal 70.8%. Arsenal is the model's pick at 70.8%.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Arsenal?
The model's most likely scoreline is 1–2 (Burnley 1, Arsenal 2).
Will Burnley vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 62.0% chance of over 2.5 goals and 38.0% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.