Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Chelsea to win, giving Chelsea a
41.1% probability. Most likely scoreline: 2–1,
with a 58.4% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Chelsea 41.1%Draw 24.1%Man United 34.8%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
2–1
Expected goals (xG)
1.59 – 1.44
Over 2.5 goals
58.4%
Under 2.5 goals
41.6%
Team rating (Elo)
1485 vs 1555
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chelsea vs Man United?
Our AI model favours Chelsea to win — Chelsea 41.1%, draw 24.1%, Man United 34.8%. Chelsea is the model's pick at 41.1%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Man United?
The model's most likely scoreline is 2–1 (Chelsea 2, Man United 1).
Will Chelsea vs Man United have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 58.4% chance of over 2.5 goals and 41.6% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.