Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Arsenal to win, giving Arsenal a
48.7% probability. Most likely scoreline: 1–2,
with a 56.1% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Chelsea 27.5%Draw 23.9%Arsenal 48.7%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
1–2
Expected goals (xG)
1.22 – 1.71
Over 2.5 goals
56.1%
Under 2.5 goals
43.9%
Team rating (Elo)
1485 vs 1666
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chelsea vs Arsenal?
Our AI model favours Arsenal to win — Chelsea 27.5%, draw 23.9%, Arsenal 48.7%. Arsenal is the model's pick at 48.7%.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Arsenal?
The model's most likely scoreline is 1–2 (Chelsea 1, Arsenal 2).
Will Chelsea vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 56.1% chance of over 2.5 goals and 43.9% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.