Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Arsenal to win, giving Arsenal a
45.1% probability. Most likely scoreline: 1–2,
with a 55.0% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Man United 30.4%Draw 24.5%Arsenal 45.1%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
1–2
Expected goals (xG)
1.28 – 1.61
Over 2.5 goals
55.0%
Under 2.5 goals
45.0%
Team rating (Elo)
1555 vs 1666
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Man United vs Arsenal?
Our AI model favours Arsenal to win — Man United 30.4%, draw 24.5%, Arsenal 45.1%. Arsenal is the model's pick at 45.1%.
What is the predicted score for Man United vs Arsenal?
The model's most likely scoreline is 1–2 (Man United 1, Arsenal 2).
Will Man United vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 55.0% chance of over 2.5 goals and 45.0% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.