Premier League · AI model prediction · Updated July 2026
Our AI model predicts Arsenal to win, giving Arsenal a
57.5% probability. Most likely scoreline: 2–1,
with a 57.5% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Win probability
Arsenal 57.5%Draw 22.0%Man United 20.5%
Model breakdown
Metric
Value
Predicted score
2–1
Expected goals (xG)
1.93 – 1.06
Over 2.5 goals
57.5%
Under 2.5 goals
42.5%
Team rating (Elo)
1666 vs 1555
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Man United?
Our AI model favours Arsenal to win — Arsenal 57.5%, draw 22.0%, Man United 20.5%. Arsenal is the model's pick at 57.5%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Man United?
The model's most likely scoreline is 2–1 (Arsenal 2, Man United 1).
Will Arsenal vs Man United have over 2.5 goals?
The model estimates a 57.5% chance of over 2.5 goals and 42.5% under.
How reliable is this prediction?
It is a statistical model trained on tens of thousands of matches, with its full accuracy track record published transparently on soccerpredictor.fly.dev.
Predictions are model-generated statistical estimates for analysis and entertainment, not betting advice. Model accuracy is published transparently on the main site.